Yes, you are seeing quite clear. We believe Threads will eventually fail as a Twitter competitor, but it doesn't mean we can't be wrong.
Much like yourselves we woke up to the trending news that Twitter is about to die. There were a lot of trending slogans but our favourite was "Threads would be the death of Twitter".
Without much convincing we visited Instagram to see what people were posting about the Threads app and BAM, Meta had already added a link on Instagram to download Threads.
So, what's all the fuss about? Meta CEO was quick to point out that within the first seven hours of launching the Threads app , they had 10 million people signup. What he failed to mention was that majority of these people signed up to Threads because it is associated with the Instagram brand. For example, instead of saying Threads app, Meta have gone with "Threads, an Instagram app.
Why we think Thread might fail
There are several reasons Threads might fail and these include but are not limited to:
It ain't unique
It's an inferior version of Twitter
It's gonna run into all the same problems as Twitter
It's been marketed as an Instagram app
In the following paragraphs we are going to expand on these four points.
It Ain't Unique
The 101 of any startup is to have a Unique Value Proposition. No demand no signups. Threads is not unique like Mastodon or Twitter. It was created solely to compete with Twitter and even promises a similar Fediverse value proposition like Mastodon. So why should I continue using it? Yes, it signed up 10 million users in its first seven hours of it launching, but that was solely due to a combination of curiosity from Instagram users, and the fact that it was being marketed as an Instagram app. If we were to take Instagram out of the equation who would download Threads?
It's an Inferior Version of Twitter
Fact. Threads is Twitter with less functions and no Elon Musk 🤣. Now this might not always remain the case. We have a strong feeling Meta released Threads as a Minimum Viable Product and they will not hesitate to take it off market if it doesn't perform as they anticipated. It is also possible that Threads could add new features that differentiate it from Twitter and Mastodon, but that is not the case now.
To be clear we are no fans of Twitter or Elon Musk but facts are facts.
It's gonna run into all the same problems as Twitter
Threads doesn't need to look any further for an understanding of where they will face problems, because Twitter is the best case study they will ever have.
Some of Twitter's top problems include online hate and diversification of revenue. Most of Twitter's revenue comes from advertising. Meta is one of Twitter's biggest advertisers, so Twitter might lose that account but Meta don't exactly have advertisers queuing up for Threads either. On the plus side, Instagram has a very successful revenue model but that is driven by its unique value proposition which Threads doesn't have.
Is Thread an app or an Instagram app
It's clear that Meta are banking on the popularity of Instagram to be the catalyst of success for Threads. Meta might struggle to separate Threads from Instagram in the future. Thread needs its own identity and value proposition separate to Instagram. If connecting and communicating with Instagram is an additional benefit to using Threads then that is great, but it can't be the core value proposition.
We dare to say Thread is not a competitor yet. None of the users we have spoken to so far are closing down their Twitter account. So it's most likely that Twitter users will also be Threads user. It doesn't have to be mutually exclusive.
Conclusion
The world is watching Threads and the world is watching how Twitter will respond to Meta. Hopefully they won't launch a version of Instagram🤣. That will be hilarious. The screenshot below highlights Elon Musk's response so far.
